Call for Abstracts

While public attention to Earth system tipping points (ESTP) has grown, policies, institutions or norms that address this distinct set of challenges do not exist yet. Arguing that a governance agenda for tipping processes is needed, and that agenda setting efforts might be underway, this session addresses fundamental questions regarding governance for a novel issue: What should be the objectives and goals of ESTP governance? Which principles and logics should guide governance efforts related to ESTPs? Who should be engaged in ESTP governance and are new actors/institutions needed at the scale of tipping elements? Who should fund ESTP governance initiatives? Contributions can explore these questions either with all or specific tipping systems in mind. Papers could focus on a specific governance actor (e.g., the EU, the financial sector, a national or sub-national government, an NGO) or ask how an existing institution like the UNFCCC could address tipping risks.

The Tipping Points in the Cryosphere: Risks, Governance, and Finance session invites contributions investigating cryosphere tipping points at a variety of scales (from local to global/ice sheet-wide), as well as the potential impacts of crossing these tipping points. We particularly welcome submissions which advance the broader understanding of the state-of-the-art in cryospheric tipping science and risks through the use of models and observational data of ice sheets, glaciers, and permafrost. Finally we encourage speakers to consider the impacts and risks of transgressing these tipping points, as well as potential governance implications, while recognising the diverse time-scales of the incumbent processes.

The escalating impacts of climate change, marked by increasingly extreme weather events and the approach of critical tipping points, have the potential to reshape global patterns of human mobility. Emerging evidence underscores the urgency of addressing these challenges, emphasising the interconnectedness of climate systems and the risk of irreversible changes, in locations around the world. This session will explore the cascading effects of climate- and socially-induced tipping points on human mobility, focusing on the dynamics of forced and voluntary migration, immobility, displacement, and planned relocation. It will distinguish between short-term, reactive displacements caused by fast-onset events like floods and cyclones, and longer-term, anticipatory migration driven by slow-onset changes such as sea-level rise or prolonged rainfall declines. Crucially, the session will address critical questions about autonomous mobility responses to tipping points, the appropriateness of viewing mobility as a form of adaptive response, and the responsibilities of local and national governments in assisting individuals to relocate to safer areas and establish more secure livelihoods, as well as supporting those who may remain in place. By examining the intersection of climate tipping points, human mobility, and governance, this session aims to not only shine a light on this crucial topic but to also identify effective strategies for reducing vulnerabilities and fostering resilience in at-risk communities.

The risks associated with crossing climate tipping points potentially present unprecedented challenges for international environmental law due to their scale, complex temporal dynamics, and non-linear characteristics. Climate tipping processes often occur over vast geographic scales, frequently spanning continents or even the entire planet. They challenge the legal field’s capacity to envision plausible, long-term scenarios and solutions to the governance challenges resulting from earth system transformations. These processes are also marked by intricate causalities, where minor interventions can lead to significant impacts and cascading effects. This session explores both the potential and the limitations of international environmental law in governing complex phenomena such as climate tipping points. We ask: how must international environmental law transform to maintain critical planetary functions? How does the non-linear nature of tipping points complicate the legal assessment of causality, and what are the implications for climate litigation? What would such a transformation imply for the structure and core concepts of international law, including its established principles, practices, institutions and treaties? How can international law be refocused on planetary concerns amidst geopolitical shifts and increasing emphasis on national sovereignty? What do the risks posed by tipping points mean for discussions about the rights of future generations and non-human life on Earth, and how could these discussions be located in international environmental law?

The 21st century has witnessed abrupt and irreversible changes in the Earth system, with cascading climate impacts that threaten interconnected environmental and human systems. Similarly, behavioral shifts and new equilibria in international relations have spawned in response to changes in current and anticipated distributions of Earth’s resources. This session will explore the interconnected dynamics of two related tipping points on policy-relevant outcomes in complex socio-ecological systems: climate and conflict tipping points. The former will highlight how regime shifts in environmental systems can result in different incentives for conflict or cooperation over access to Earth’s resources. The latter will focus on the consequences of irreversible changes to conflict incentives and payoffs on resource abundance and use. We will also examine “Constructive Conflict” arising from climate change: how conflict can lead to positive tipping points within social-ecological systems, ultimately fostering more sustainable and just outcomes. Topics to be covered include: 1) Conflict as a social-ecological tipping point; 2) Constructive conflict as a positive tipping point; 3) Tipping points in natural capital. This session aims to foster a transdisciplinary dialogue that bridges new perspectives in economics, ecology, international relations and complex (Earth) systems science to better understand sustainable management of the environment and conflict/ cooperation in social-ecological systems.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), Sub Polar Gyre (SPG) and Greenland Ice Sheet are central climate tipping elements due to their global influence and complex interaction with other Earth system tipping elements. Intricate feedbacks between the AMOC and relatively fast-scale processes like the SPG circulation, oceanic convection, and sea ice formation imply that abrupt AMOC shifts could occur on decadal timescales, with severe impacts. A substantial decline or even collapse of the AMOC before the year 2100 cannot be ruled out. This calls for an urgent incorporation of AMOC, SPG and Greenland Ice Sheet tipping risks in climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We invite scientists, policymakers, opinion leaders and stakeholders to gather for the latest scientific update on these issues, guided by a critical assessment of uncertainties. Contributions may explore the drivers, impacts, and advances towards robust early warning of tipping, drawing from modelling, observations and theoretical studies. We also invite contributions on policy and governance measures that could address risks and the associated (geo) political dynamics. Papers could address governance efforts at different scales (global, regional, national); who should be engaged in such policymaking and how this relates to the existing political landscape related to climate change.

Our economic and financial systems are embedded within the Earth system. The collapse of parts of the natural world could lead to systemically relevant risks with profound implications for macroeconomic and financial stability. At the same time, the role of financial activities, norms and incentives in driving tipping dynamics warrants critical examination. Can the financial actors and policies be leverage points for reducing the threat of tipping points? This session will explore how economic and financial systems are exposed to cascading risks from climate and ecological tipping points. Simultaneously, it will address how parts of the international financial system may contribute to environmental tipping points by investing in high-risk sectors, imposing structural incentives for ecologically damaging activities, and other amplification channels. The session invites conceptual, empirical, and policy contributions that respond to the above, particularly on the following topics: 1) Mechanisms through which financial practices accelerate tipping point risks. 2) The risks that climate and ecological tipping points pose to economies and financial systems. 3) Strategies and considerations for aligning financial flows within planetary boundaries. This session aims to bridge interdisciplinary perspectives, fostering dialogue between economists, natural scientists, and policymakers.

Our economic and financial systems are embedded within the Earth system. The collapse of parts of the natural world could lead to systemically relevant risks with profound implications for macroeconomic and financial stability. At the same time, the role of financial activities, norms and incentives in driving tipping dynamics warrants critical examination. Can the financial actors and policies be leverage points for reducing the threat of tipping points? This session will explore how economic and financial systems are exposed to cascading risks from climate and ecological tipping points. Simultaneously, it will address how parts of the international financial system may contribute to environmental tipping points by investing in high-risk sectors, imposing structural incentives for ecologically damaging activities, and other amplification channels. The session invites conceptual, empirical, and policy contributions that respond to the above, particularly on the following topics: 1) Mechanisms through which financial practices accelerate tipping point risks. 2) The risks that climate and ecological tipping points pose to economies and financial systems. 3) Strategies and considerations for aligning financial flows within planetary boundaries. This session aims to bridge interdisciplinary perspectives, fostering dialogue between economists, natural scientists, and policymakers.

There are still many gaps in understanding the potential impacts on humans of breaching Earth system tipping points, even for direct impacts. But complexity science has taught us that large-scale disruptive events such as breached tipping points are likely to have not only direct and some indirect impacts, but impacts that compound, interact and cascade resulting in complex, systemic risks. In this session we want to explore various approaches to studying and understanding such systemic and cascading risks, whether through advanced modelling techniques or through alternative approaches such as storylines and other forms of systemic risks assessment. We also want to focus not only on economic impacts that can be quantified through monetization, but also on wider societal and political impacts, such as social unrests, political instability, state failure, conflict, mental health crisis due to trauma from ecological disaster or displacement etc. Could these economic, societal and political dynamics develop a negative social tipping dynamic and what would that mean for our efforts to prevent Earth system tipping points and govern their impacts? Furthermore we want to better understand the complex interaction patterns between these direct and indirect impacts. With the session we want then to try to draw conclusions of how national or regional (climate) risk assessments need to be updated to take into account Earth system tipping points and the systemic and cascading risks that they entail.

This session will explore the science and strategy behind achieving positive tipping points for Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies, focusing on their potential to drive global net-zero transformations. Presenters will discuss the conditions required to trigger self-sustaining, positive CDR tipping points that could exponentially accelerate carbon drawdown. Key topics will include ecosystem-based and industrial CDR methods, technological advancements for MRV, policy frameworks, social inovation and financing mechanisms that could rapidly scale these solutions globally. Attendees will gain insights into how combining technological innovation with nature-based solutions can catalyze critical momentum towards a stabilized climate, delivering lasting environmental and economic benefits.