Magnitude of change

Passing ESTPs can increase the magnitude of global, regional, and local changes. At the global scale, the magnitude of (eventual) sea level rise will be much increased by passing ESTPs for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and the distribution of sea level height will adjust – increasing furthest away from the ice sheet that is lost (as the Earth’s gravity field adjusts). AMOC collapse would cause sea level rises of up to a metre in the North Atlantic region, while SPG shift would raise them by up to 30 centimetres along the northeast seaboard of North America. Passing ESTPs can also add significantly to global warming by releasing carbon – for example, from abrupt permafrost thaw or Amazon rainforest dieback – or lowering planetary albedo – from lost cloud cover associated with the Amazon forest, or lost snow/ice cover.

At the regional scale, passing ESTPs can increase the magnitude of climate changes. For example, Amazon dieback would amplify warming and drying in the region and the neighbouring agricultural region. At the local scale, passing ESTPs can increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme events. For example, boreal forest dieback can greatly increase the severity of wildfires. These also have regional impacts on air quality.

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