Global Tipping Points

Earth’s climate and nature are already passing tipping points as global warming approaches 1.5°C.

Since the first Global Tipping Points Report in 2023, understanding of tipping point risks has increased. Already at 1.4°C of global warming, warm water coral reefs are crossing their thermal tipping point and experiencing unprecedented dieback, impairing the livelihoods of hundreds of millions who depend on them. Parts of the polar ice sheets may also have crossed tipping points that would eventually commit the world to several metres of irreversible sea-level rise affecting hundreds of millions. Crossing tipping points reduces Earth’s ability to cope with human interference, further amplifying impacts, making it a fundamental human rights issue.

Overshooting 1.5°C puts the world in a danger zone where further tipping points pose catastrophic risks.

Global warming is projected to overshoot 1.5°C within a few years, placing humanity at even greater risk. Climate change and deforestation together put the Amazon rainforest at risk of widespread dieback below 2°C, threatening incalculable damage to biodiversity and impacting over a hundred million who depend on the forest. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is also at risk of collapse below 2°C, which would radically undermine global food and water security and plunge northwest Europe into severe winters. Preventing climate tipping points should be a legal imperative.

Minimising overshoot of 1.5°C is essential to prevent climate tipping points.

Every fraction of a degree and every year over 1.5°C matters for preventing climate tipping points. To minimise the magnitude and duration of global temperature overshoot above 1.5°C, global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions need to be halved by 2030 (compared to 2010 levels), reach net zero by 2050, and then net greenhouse gas removal needs to occur. This requires unprecedented acceleration in decarbonisation, rapid mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants – especially methane emissions, and rapid scaling of sustainable and equitable carbon removal from the atmosphere.

Leaders at COP30 must act now to prevent damaging tipping points.

The window for preventing some damaging, irreversible tipping points is rapidly closing. If we wait for certainty that tipping points have been crossed before we act, it will be too late. Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and binding long-term or net zero targets are not enough to prevent damaging tipping points. They commit the world to global warming that will likely exceed 2°C before 2100. Hence unprecedented action is needed from leaders at COP30 and policymakers worldwide to prevent damaging tipping points.

Tackling non-climate drivers can help avoid biosphere tipping points.

For warm-water coral reefs, the Amazon rainforest and other ecosystems at risk of tipping, reducing non-climate stressors can help increase their resilience to tipping. For coral reefs, this includes reducing overfishing and nutrient loading. For the Amazon rainforest, reducing deforestation and forest degradation are key. These local actions can give communities some agency over the fate of their ecosystems. Ultimately, however, global warming will need to be reduced below 1.5°C towards 1°C to prevent the permanent loss of coral reefs.

Climate progress has accelerated in the last 2 years despite recent backsliding.

Since 2023, there has been a radical acceleration in the uptake of clean technologies worldwide, notably solar PV power and electric vehicles. There has also been contagious spread of climate litigation cases, nature regeneration initiatives, together with the emergence of more sustainable patterns of consumption and production in food and fibre supply chains. Despite recent backsliding on commitments in some nations and sectors, a minority can still positively tip the majority, generating self-amplifying change in societies, economies and technologies. The more people who act, the more they influence others to act.

Policy mandates are needed to accelerate the change to transition away from fossil fuels.

The most effective policies to trigger positive tipping points in the energy system are generally policy mandates to phase in clean technologies and transition away from fuelled ones. These include bans on the future sale of petrol/diesel cars, diesel trucks and gas boilers in key markets. They can make clean alternatives better and cheaper for everyone, helping eliminate the 75% of greenhouse gas emissions linked to the energy system, and transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner.

Reducing the cost of capital enables positive tipping points especially in the Global South.

All sources of public and private finance can be engaged to reduce the cost of capital for low-carbon technologies and resilient infrastructure, particularly for the benefit of Global South countries. The costs of climate finance must also take into account the long-term economic and health benefits of climate action and the far greater costs of inaction or delay. The Baku-to-Belem Roadmap offers a transformational opportunity for climate finance.

Positive tipping points can simultaneously combat poverty, hunger and inequality.

Positive tipping points are already reducing energy prices worldwide, accelerating access to cheap electricity for those that lack it, and benefitting the economies of net fossil fuel importing countries where three-quarters of people live. Engaging communities in rapid transition can help ensure that decarbonisation also achieves social developmental goals of combatting hunger, poverty and inequality. Digital public infrastructure can support fairness and shared prosperity by delivering essential financial, health, educational, and other social and economic services, particularly in low- and middle income countries.

Sustainable production and consumption can positively tip the food system.

Policy changes are needed worldwide to help eliminate the 25% of greenhouse gas emissions linked to food, farming, and deforestation and in so doing, help reverse global biodiversity loss. Domestic legal frameworks and governance, shifts to sustainable production supported by public and private finance, changes in consumption and sustainable international trade policies are critical to avoid damaging tipping points in nature. This includes avoiding dieback of the Amazon rainforest. These changes are necessary to liberate land for regenerating nature.

Positive tipping points of nature regeneration can scale sustainable carbon removal.

Nature regeneration can be positively tipped, and social tipping points are already spreading nature positive initiatives, including marine protected areas. Action to protect indigenous rights, support community-led conservation initiatives, ensure fair and transparent valuing of nature and establish rights of nature, can help trigger further positive tipping points for nature. This will help achieve the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets and is essential to scale up sustainable removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and limit overshoot of 1.5°C.

Civil society and governance can catalyse each other to cascade positive change.

Positive tipping points can cascade between different parts of society and the economy. Catalysing collective action from civil society - through the Global Mutirão - is key to helping trigger positive tipping points and giving policymakers a mandate to act. Policy action should target super-leverage points that can trigger cascading positive change across sectors. Only with a combination of decisive policy and civil society action can the world tip its trajectory from facing existential climate tipping point risks to seizing positive tipping point opportunities.