POSITIVE TIPPING POINTS

We need to identify and trigger positive tipping points to accelerate to net zero.

Key Messages

Positive tipping points must be identified and triggered to accelerate to net zero

Positive tipping points occur when reinforcing feedbacks in a system overwhelm balancing feedbacks, triggering self-propelling change towards a more sustainable state.
Policymakers can accelerate decarbonisation by prioritising technologies and behaviours that have the potential to positively tip.
Easily imitatable behaviours in which social influence plays a strong role (e.g. active travel) and highly modular, mass producible technologies (e.g. solar panels), have greatest potential to be positively tipped.
Deliberate actions can enable positive tipping by neutralising balancing feedback, promoting reinforcing feedback and helping make a desired change the most affordable, accessible and/or attractive option.

Progress towards positive tipping points can be sensed and acted upon

Positive tipping points have already been crossed in the adoption of solar PV and wind power globally, in the adoption of electric vehicles, battery storage and heat pumps in leading markets and there is potential for them in various applications of green hydrogen, green ammonia and alternative protein foods.
Early opportunity signals can reveal a loss of resilience of an incumbent system and a window of opportunity for positive tipping, but better indicators are needed to understand tipping potential and proximities to tipping points.
System interactions can create opportunities for positive tipping cascades whereby tipping in one sector (e.g., battery technology) can increase the likelihood of tipping in another (e.g., renewable energy).

Policy design needs to match the phase of a positive tipping process

Effective sequencing of interventions is important to activate positive tipping points. Different opportunities exist to overcome barriers and enable scaling at different phases of an S-curve of adoption. Effective policy design needs to match the system’s tipping phase.
Policy mixes need to be appropriate to the scale, context, sector, actor and phase of transition, to effectively catalyse and facilitate positive tipping dynamics.

Positive tipping points need to be well governed to ensure a rapid and just transition

Governance can create the enabling conditions for positive tipping, including easing access to finance, providing the necessary infrastructure to support rapid deployment and cultivating sufficient stakeholder engagement and public support for policies to be approved and implemented.
Rapid transition benefits from governance that is collaborative, localised and tailored to what communities say they want through participatory methods.
Governments need to be aware of the potential for unintended consequences from positive tipping points including financial and political instability, stranded assets (including human assets) and perceived (in)justice of the transition.

Cross-cutting factors can support positive tipping points

Patterns of capital allocation that enable sustained financial flows into emerging lowcarbon technologies and sectors can help overcome lock-ins, reduce perceived risk and build market confidence, particularly in underinvested regions and markets.
Digitalisation and AI have the potential to accelerate positive tipping points by managing complex systems from renewable energy smart grids and transportation systems to social deliberation processes.
Climate communications in the format of film, journalism, performance art and other media can be instrumental in generating the political momentum for positive change, particularly when connected to targeted policy advocacy and trusted messengers.

Coordination and coalitions can catalyse positive tipping points

Coordinated cross-sectoral action at ‘superleverage points’ can unleash positive tipping cascades. Coordinated mandates across interacting sectors (e.g. power, transport and heating) can bring forward tipping in all.
Coherent, committed, ambitious coalitions can challenge incumbencies and catalyse positive tipping towards majority adoption of social and technological innovations.

Transformation is underway in the power and mobility sectors but can be accelerated

Renewable energy is scaling rapidly but unevenly. Solar PV is doubling capacity every 2-3 years and growth of wind power is also strong. Reducing planning delays, providing grid infrastructure and finance can accelerate change.
Battery prices have plummeted by 84% in the last decade and capacity is growing exponentially, underpinning mobility and power sector transitions.
Electric vehicle adoption is accelerating in leading markets. China has become the dominant manufacturer. Norway has near total adoption. Price parity, battery performance and charging availability are key determinants of mass adoption.

Policy action can bring forward positive tipping points in other key sectors

Policy mandates and coordinated finance and investment are essential for bringing forward positive tipping points in the energy system.
Heat pumps are a critical lever for decarbonising buildings, but face high upfront costs and other barriers including a shortage of skilled installers. Improved policy incentives, financing (e.g. cheap loans) and consumer trust are vital.
Affordable green hydrogen could unlock hard-to-abate sectors such as those requiring industrial heat (eg steel and cement). Current costs are 2-3 times higher than grey hydrogen but learning curves could lead to price parity.
Clear policy supported by financial incentives can enable farmers to switch to more sustainable production methods and build resilience to extreme weather events.

High public support for stronger action on climate change is threatened by polarisation and disinformation

Widespread support for rapid decarbonisation can be strengthened by ensuring that the benefits are evenly distributed, e.g. through lower bills, better health outcomes and improved quality of life.
Supportive policy and public procurement can help to normalise and spread sustainable behaviours, e.g. through promoting active transport, sustainable eating.

Electrification presents key positive tipping point opportunities

Electrification is a decarbonisation multiplier: electrifying heating, transport and industry both reduces emission and stimulates investment in new renewables. It increases overall efficiency and flexibility of the energy system.
Integration can accelerate the self-propelling growth of renewable electricity generation, but requires urgent grid upgrades, energy storage and demand flexibility.
New digital technologies that can optimise energy balancing and storage between commercial and domestic energy providers need to be accelerated.

Targeted policies can accelerate electrification

Decoupling renewable electricity pricing from fossil fuel-linked marginal pricing could significantly benefit consumers and accelerate change.
Co-adoption strategies can trigger positive tipping: bundling complementary technologies increases value, reduces risk and speeds clean technology diffusion.
Policy should target households during key renovation and purchasing moments.

Positive tipping points in food and fibre supply chains can end deforestation and ecosystem conversion

Triggering positive tipping points in the sustainable production and consumption of agricultural commodities requires mutually reinforcing actions in three areas: Clear policy signals and enforcement; coordination across supply chains and between key markets; and finance to support transitions in production.
Legal protections for tropical forests and their inhabitants need to be established and enforced.
Standards for sustainable commodity production (e.g. soy, beef, cocoa, cotton, palm oil) and trade need to be developed and enforced. Successful moratoria (e.g. Amazon Soy) show that regulation and monitoring are essential for compliance and that sustainable alternative options must be available for producers (and financially viable).
Demand-side interventions in import markets must align with domestic policy in major producing countries to ensure success and should support producers in meeting new standards through provision of transition finance.
Policy and market structures currently incentivise harmful practices. Subsidies and procurement should change towards sustainable production and consumption, thereby supporting sustainably productive landscapes that include standing forests.

Positive tipping points can rapidly restore nature and biodiversity

Ecosystem restoration can positively tip degraded systems back to health, through interventions like keystone species reintroduction, nutrient reduction and clumped planting that activate natural reinforcing feedbacks.
Recovery of food and water resources can be positively tipped through promoting community governance of common pool resources including groundwater, forests, fish stocks and the creation of marine protected areas.
Scaling nature-positive initiatives depends on local benefits and governance. Community management, equitable benefit-sharing and leveraging ecological feedbacks enable rapid spread. Combining local agency with supportive policy increases durability.