Planetary Solvency Dashboard Beta*

Planetary Solvency Risk Description & Commentary

1. Climate Change

2. Nature

3. Society

4. Economy

There is a risk that climate change is not mitigated, leading to further global temperature increases and increasingly severe climate impacts, which overwhelm societies ability to adapt.

Risk position AMBER

Impact Severe in 2024 with increase in $billion+ loss events and 10k+ mortality events globally. Ongoing increase of emissions and GHG levels, with warming implications. Transition is accelerating.

Risk trajectory RED

Tipping points increase risk exponentially past 1.5C. Emissions and GHG levels imply >2C by 2050. Highly likely Catastrophic warming levels experienced pre 2050 with Extreme warming Possible to Likely. Policy support required to radically accelerate transition, reduce emissions and leverage natural solutions.

There is a risk that global ecosystems are degraded, natural resources exhausted and biosphere resilience threatened, leading to the breakdown of critical ecosystem services that society relies on.

Risk position AMBER

2024 impacts trending to Severe. Water and food system stresses increasing. Continued degradation of nature assets, multiple planetary boundaries breached, high extinction rates, multiple ecosystem threats and major ecoservices at risk. Global agreement in place to mitigate biodiversity loss but limited progress on implementation.

Risk trajectory RED

Ongoing extractive economy continues to drive risk of multiple ecosystem and related ecoservice failures, exacerbated by climate, with Catastrophic risks at least likely and Extreme risks possible pre 2050. Policy support required to mitigate risks and global governance over global commons required, linked to and supporting climate policies.

There is a risk the path to stabilise the Earth system is derailed by interacting biophysical and socioeconomic factors, with physical risks and resource shortages driving geopolitical tension and conflict.

Risk position YELLOW

Limited to Severe impacts in 2024. Several areas of high and ongoing geopolitical tension including multiple active conflicts with risk of contagion, fragile states vulnerable to climate and nature impacts and a trend of increasing economic protectionism.

Risk trajectory AMBER

Nature and climate risk trajectories will drive further biophysical constraints including stresses on water supply, further food supply impacts, heat stress, increased disease vectors, likely to drive migration and conflict. Possible to Likely risk of Severe to Decimation level societal impacts, with increasingly severe direct and indirect consequences of climate and nature risks driving socio-political fragmentation in exposed and vulnerable regions.

There is a risk that interacting biophysical and socioeconomic factors, lead to economic shocks and contraction of GDP.

Risk position GREEN

Limited economic impacts in 2024, although scale of climate events and subsequent losses continues to trend upwards.

Risk trajectory AMBER

Latest estimates of climate impacts now forecast 19% GDP impact by 2050, Decimation or Catastrophic level economic impacts now Possible due to high range of uncertainty impact of interconnected risk drivers.

In 1990 climate and nature risks were less well understood. Tipping points had not yet been identified and little work had been undertaken on the potential severity of events that might occur, with limited understanding of impact on socio-economic systems. There was optimism about a growing economy and lifting populations into higher standards of living.

By 2005, further work had been undertaken on climate impacts in the IPCC’s Third Assessment report. However, limited broad awareness of nature risks and no publications yet on tipping points. Still broad confidence in economic growth and improved living standards narrative.

2010 – By 2010 climate tipping points had been identified increasing the likelihood of decimation risks. The Aichi goals were launched decreasing the likelihood of severe nature risks. The global financial crisis had reduced confidence in the resilience of the economy and distracted from climate action.

2015 – While knowledge was building about the potential severity of climate risks these were still believed not to occur till over 5C of warming in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment report. The Paris Agreement acts to reduce the likelihood of severe impacts. Nature still lagging, although IPBES established, Aichi goals not being achieved.

2020 – IPBES global assessment published in 2019 highlights severity and proximity of nature risks. Climate risks becoming more evident and at lower temperatures, with increased knowledge of tipping points. Covid causes widespread economic contraction and societal impacts.

Planetary Solvency Risk position and trajectory

There has been a significant increase in 2025 risk position, with overall position now outside risk appetite. Global climate impacts Severe. Nature impacts anticipated Severe imminently. Increasing societal fragmentation with active conflicts, heightened geo-political tension and severe stresses on vulnerable states. Economic losses and Mortality still Limited.

Risk trajectory pushes all risks further out of appetite soon, with increased breaches of risk tolerances Likely. Immediate policy action required to mitigate risks of Catastrophic level or greater impacts this century and possibly well before 2050. Cascading and interconnecting nature of risks requires systemic approach and solution.

Risk trajectory 2050

C Climate

N Nature

S Society

E Economy

Climate Change

Nature

Society

Economy

Paris Agreement goals will not be met without immediate policy action, risking ruin

Risk position AMBER Impact Severe in 2024 with globally increased $billion+ loss events and 10k+ mortality events. Now >1.5C (12 mth average) implying overshoot of Paris goals. Ongoing increase of emissions and GHG levels, continued fossil fuel investment. Transition is accelerating.

Risk trajectory RED Tipping points increase risk exponentially past 1.5C. Emissions and GHG levels imply >2C by 2050. Highly likely Catastrophic warming levels experienced pre 2050 with Extreme warming Possible. Policy support required to radically accelerate transition, reduce emissions and leverage natural solutions.

Physical risk

Warming accelerated in 2023, above 1.5°C on 12 mth average, overshoot.
>GHGs + emissions also breaking records, more warming in pipeline.
Climate impacts increasingly severe globally: fire, flood, heat, drought.
Nature an undervalued ally that continues to be degraded.

Energy transition

Energy transition accelerating supported by rapid scaling of transition finance.
$1 trillion investment in fossil fuels and an all time record for coal investment.
GDP requires energy, implying more fossil fuel use if renewables absent.
Energy security and geo-political implications if transition is executed.

Risk & uncertainty

Tipping point risk increases >1.5C and several tipping points now triggered.
Climate sensitivity, Earth may be much more sensitive to GHGs than we think.
Additional factors driving accelerated warming - aerosol cooling, loss of albedo.
Climate models understate risk, miss nonlinear risk impacts and cascading risks.

Policy action required to bend risk trajectory to amber

Implement realistic risk assessment to complement science and communicate risk position and trajectory clearly to policymakers.
Prepare for faster than expected warming and higher sensitivity. Revisit carbon budgets, decarbonisation pathways and temp ratings.
Adaptation required for increasingly severe and unprecedented risk environment, link resilience to national security agenda.
Policy support to accelerate S-curves of energy transition and reduce emissions. Consider nuclear and other alternatives as key mitigants.
Incorporate nature and justice into national and corporate transition plan requirements, with supporting education on these topics.

Food, water and health shocks likely as ecosystem services disrupted due to nature loss

Risk position AMBER 2024 impacts trending to Severe. Water and food system stress increasing. Ongoing degradation of nature assets, multiple planetary boundaries breached, high extinction rates, multiple ecosystem threats and major ecoservices at risk. Global agreement to mitigate biodiversity loss but limited progress on implementation.

Risk trajectory RED Extractive economy drives increasing risk of multiple ecosystem and related ecoservice failures, exacerbated by climate, with Catastrophic risks likely and Extreme risks possible pre-2050. Policy support required to mitigate risks and global governance over global commons required, linked to and supporting climate policies.

Physical nature risk

Unprecedented rates of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, drive risks and accelerate climate change.
Increasingly disruptive impacts on food and water security likely.
Reduced resilience to natural disasters.
Human health impacts include zoonotic diseases and reduced health benefits.

Nature positive

Economy drives loss through land-use change, resource exploitation, climate change and ongoing pollution.
Global agreement and some bright spots – nature can bounce back quickly.
Need for systemic co-ordinated policy response to achieve 30*30 goals.
Nature based solutions critical for climate.

Risk & uncertainty

Ecosystem collapse can occur quickly due to ecosystem tipping points.
Lack of forward looking risk indicators around critical ecosystem services.
Unknown vulnerabilities and resilience of food and water networks.
Uncertainty around risk interconnectivity, cascades and unprecedented events.

Policy action required to bend risk trajectory to amber

Implement realistic risk assessment to complement science and communicate risk position and trajectory clearly to policymakers.
Prepare for food and water system disruption due to nature loss, assess vulnerabilities and take pro-active action to build resilience.
Systemic policy response required to protect and restore ecosystems, strengthen regulation and address drivers of nature loss.
Consider how to evolve economic system to measure, report, manage and incentivise a nature positive future.
Broad based education from top and bottom to build awareness of our reliance on Earth System and risks of ongoing degradation.

Severe and escalating societal disruption threatens future peace and prosperity

Risk position YELLOW Regionally varied Limited to Severe impacts in 2024, occasionally Decimation in fragile states vulnerable to climate and nature impacts. Over 300 million need humanitarian assistance. Several areas of high geopolitical tension, multiple active conflicts with risk of contagion and a trend of increasing economic protectionism.

Risk trajectory AMBER Water, food and heat stress, zoonotic diseases increase migration and conflict. Possible to Likely risk of Severe to Decimation level societal impacts, with severe socio-political fragmentation and conflict in more regions. Reduced aid budgets negatively impact health and societal response to >1 billion needing assistance. Geopolitical tensions (economic, demographic, geographic, energy, digital and space), misinformation and inequality complicate response and increase vulnerability.

Geopolitics

Conflicts and military expenditure increasing, numerous conflict zones.
Increasingly polarised world, waning appetite for multilateralism.
Tech driving division (social media / misinformation), impact of AI, cyber war.
Economic growth forecasts decreasing with potential for headwinds.

Human impact

>300 million requiring humanitarian assistance globally, aid budget reducing.
Billions impacted by conflict, water, food and heat stress and extreme events.
Range of negative health and wellbeing impacts in affected regions.
Inequality driving political instability and inconsistent policy responses over time.

Risk & uncertainty

Impact of ageing populations and reduced fertility on economies and geopolitics.
Whether disruptive physical risks drive cooperation or conflict/protectionism.
Scale and pace of involuntary mass migration due to conflict/uninhabitability.
Response – science informed resilience build vs denialism and reacting to events.

Policy action required to bend risk trajectory to amber

Implement realistic risk assessment to complement science and communicate risk position and trajectory clearly to policymakers.
Recognise need for science and risk informed co-ordinated adaptation activity to guide response and build resilience to anticipated events.
Develop solutions for collaboration on material Planetary Solvency risks, recognising need to mitigate human and economic impacts.
Forward planning for unprecedented migratory flows required, including dynamics for ageing nations to become migrant seeking.
Evolution of national goals to focus on improving human outcomes as well as economic goals.

Unrecognised societal and environmental risks may lead to losses in productive capacity

Risk position GREEN Limited economic impacts in 2024, although scale of climate events and subsequent losses continues to trend upwards towards 1% of GDP. Awareness of insurance withdrawal rising with economic implications. Climate litigation increasing. Energy and materials use grow in line with economy with some scarcities emerging.

Risk trajectory AMBER Latest estimates of climate impacts forecast an expected 19% GDP impact by 2050 but still exclude many risks, including tipping points and nature risks. Decimation or Catastrophic level economic impacts of >25% GDP loss by 2050 now Possible due to high range of uncertainty and impact of interconnected risk drivers. Economic inputs of capital, labour, raw materials and energy may all be impacted significantly by complex basket of interconnected risk events.

Global economy

Forecasts of steady global growth (3.3%), but below pre-pandemic levels.
China and US forecast to provide steady growth in short term.
Developing countries headwinds include debt costs, investment and high costs.
Impact of inflation, economic policies and tariffs.

Headwinds

Dominant economic model blind to climate and nature risks.
Policy measures currently inadequate to price and address externalities.
Inflation may continue to hit end consumer demand in multiple markets.
Supply of economic inputs impacted by scarcity and complex risk events.

Risk & uncertainty

Extent to which new technologies, including space, grow economy.
Pace and scale of energy transition, with potential for cheaper energy in the future.
Extent of climate, nature and societal driven disruption to economic activity.
Ongoing evolution of geopolitics, protectionism vs global cooperation.

Policy action required to bend risk trajectory to green

Implement realistic risk assessment to complement science and communicate risk position and trajectory clearly to policymakers.
Refine dominant economic model to recognise criticality of Earth system for ongoing provision of baseline economic inputs.
Develop concise set of information for policymakers on refined economic model to inform policy decisions.
Intentional policy choices to reduce inequality and manage Planetary Solvency through regulation and incentives.
Consider how to develop international financial mechanisms to facilitate growth in developing economies.

Climate Change

Nature

Society

Economy

Risk impacts

Limited

Severe

Decimation

Catastrophic

Extreme

	Financial Impact	Non-Financial Impact
Level	GDP Losses	Human Mortality	Climate	Nature	Societal
Limited	GDP Losses ≥1% >$1 trillion annual losses	Human Mortality ≥1% >80 million deaths	Climate Global warming below 1.5C by 2050, with limited overshoot Climate tipping points largely avoided	Nature Mass extinction avoided and ecosystem services largely functional. Occasional global food crisis and widespread water crises.	Societal Ongoing significant climate impacts with many hundreds of billion dollar + loss events annually and associated mortality and socio-political stress.
Severe	GDP Losses ≥5% >$5 trillion annual losses	Human Mortality ≥5% >400 million deaths	Climate Global warming limited to 1.5C by 2050 following overshoot Some proximate climate tipping points triggered	Nature Some impacts to critical ecosystem services. Ongoing species extinction. Regular global food and water crises.	Societal Some socio-political fragmentation in most vulnerable states, where adaptation has been limited. Fragile states exposed to climate risks see mass migration and mortality events from heat, water stress and weather events.
Decimation	GDP Losses >10% >$10 trillion annual losses	Human Mortality >10% >800 million deaths	Climate Global warming limited to 2C by 2050 Several climate tipping points triggered.	Nature Severe reduction in several critical ecosystem services. Major extinction events in some geographies. Frequent global food and water crises.	Societal Severe socio-political fragmentation in regions exposed to climate and/or nature impacts. Failure of vulnerable states and mass mortality events in impacted areas.
Catastrophic	GDP Losses >25%	Human Mortality ≥25% >2 billion deaths	Climate 2C or more by 2050 High number of climate tipping points triggered, partial tipping cascade.	Nature Breakdown of some critical ecosystem services and Earth systems. Major extinction events in multiple geographies. Ocean circulation severely impacted.	Societal Severe socio-political fragmentation in many regions, low lying regions lost. Heat and water stress drive involuntary mass migration of billions. Catastrophic mortality events from disease, nutrition, thirst and conflict.
Extreme	GDP Losses ≥50%	Human Mortality ≥50% >4 billion deaths	Climate 3C or more by 2050 Multiple climate tipping points triggered, tipping cascade.	Nature Breakdown of several critical ecosystem services and Earth systems. High level of extinction of higher order life on Earth.	Societal Significant socio-political fragmentation worldwide and/or state failure with rapid, enduring, and significant loss of capital, and systems identity. Frequent large scale mortality events.

Climate change Headlines

Acceleration, uncertainty, opportunity and risk

Warming accelerated in 2023 with temperatures passing 1.5°C, driving more severe impacts and increasing tipping point risk. Global emissions continue to increase and GHGs at record levels meaning further warming in pipeline.

1.5C passed for first time and rate of warming increased significantly.
Climate impacts increasingly severe globally: fire, flood, heat, drought.
Tipping point risk significantly increased above 1.5C, driving non-linear risks.
Ongoing and record high emissions will drive GHGs and further warming.

Earth’s climate may be much more sensitive than thought. Net zero carbon budgets will not achieve the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. Additional factors such as aerosol cooling and albedo loss are also accelerating warming.

Prepare for implications of faster than expected warming and overshoot.
Urgently revisit carbon budgets and decarbonisation pathways.
Uncertainty implies need for prudence and critical review of assumptions.
Account for additional factors driving warming such as aerosol cooling.

The energy transition is accelerating, particularly when policy supports, transition finance is scaling rapidly. Ongoing investment into fossil fuels and an all-time record for coal imply stranded assets and/or emissions.

Prepare for implications of faster than expected warming and overshoot.
Urgently revisit carbon budgets and decarbonisation pathways.
Uncertainty implies need for prudence and critical review of assumptions.
Account for additional factors driving warming such as aerosol cooling.

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Planety Solvency Report

* This Planetary Solvency dashboard format and content is illustrative. We welcome comments and feedback, particularly at the Global Tipping Points conference in June 2025. Please refer to the full report for further details on the methodology underpinning this dashboard.

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