Programme

Latest science on tipping points in the Earth System from all lines of evidence (modelling, observations, geological/palaeoclimatological archives), including critical thresholds and potential tipping dynamics.

Latest science on the impacts of crossing tipping points or the “tipping” of critical Earth system components could have on other Earth system components  including “what-if” scenarios, implications for the planetary resilience, the breaching of planetary boundaries, triggering tipping cascades.

Imminent climate overshoot increases the risk of crossing tipping points in the Earth system (ESTPs). Hence, next to the well-known challenges of adaptation to a warmer climate in general, we need a better understanding of the socio-economic and financial implications of ESTPs and how to deal with them. In this context, the Plenary will discuss the potential for the emergence of negative socio-economic and financial impacts of ESTPs, possibly causing negative socio-economic tipping points (e.g. systemic climate risks), and outline potential instruments to prevent them. In this Plenary session and the corresponding Parallel Workshop session, we will direct the spotlight at key elements of this, asking what the cascading impacts of ESTPs mean for people’s livelihoods in different geographies, assessing the economic and societal impacts of large-scale physical climate risks, and the role of financial system in managing physical and transitional risks.

Avoiding the worst Earth system tipping risks requires societal transformation at a speed and scale that incremental change cannot deliver. Normatively positive tipping points in social systems – where reinforcing feedbacks make change in technologies, economies, behaviours institutions or politics self-propelling – offer a route to the required acceleration. Documented examples include the self-amplifying uptake of renewables, batteries and electric vehicles, shifts in behavioural and social norms, and social contagion in attitudes and political mobilisation. This session brings together the latest science on societal tipping points for transformation: theories of nonlinear dynamics for rapid transition; empirical evidence of tipping dynamics; methods for identifying and measuring change and proximity to tipping (tipping signals); enabling conditions, triggers and interventions ; interactions and cascades across systems and scales; equity, justice, policy and governance considerations to ensure that transitions are fair, legitimate and durable. The plenary and parallel session will examine how positive tipping dynamics can be enabled and accelerated and the trade-offs and risks of unintended consequences.

This session explores emerging thinking on how to govern accelerating and potentially irreversible Earth system change. Focusing especially on tipping-point risks, it examines the governance of prevention and adaptation to tipping dynamics; evolving approaches to global and planetary commons; the role of law and litigation; and pathways towards transformative change. The session will consider where current governance arrangements fall short, and what new principles, institutions and strategies may be needed to navigate the Anthropocene.

This session kicks off the second half of the conference, which is mainly focused on governance. It begins with a summary of the science of Earth system tipping points and their consequences, as well as of positive tipping point opportunities. A panel discussion will explore the key actors and actions for accelerating change to manage tipping risks and realise tipping opportunities. It brings together leading thinkers and doers from policymaking, science, business, and beyond, to translate science into tangible progress. 

Earth system tipping points present decisionmakers with profound challenges: acting under uncertainty, preventing potentially irreversible change, preparing for emerging risks, and mobilizing cooperation across sectors, countries and generations. This session brings together political and societal leaders to explore what effective tipping point governance means in practice. It will examine barriers to action, opportunities for leadership and collaboration in the currently changing global political and institutional landscape, and how growing awareness of tipping risks can be translated into concrete political and societal responses.

Earth system tipping points are global risks, but many of their drivers, impacts and opportunities for action are regionally concentrated. Regional governance can bridge the gap between global coordination and national or local action, for example, enabling shared monitoring, risk assessment, and coordination of preparedness efforts across borders. Yet opportunities differ across tipping systems and political contexts. This session explores how regional institutions, networks and partnerships can build governance approaches tailored to particular tipping risks, from major forest and ocean systems to glaciers and coral reefs, and what it takes to turn shared regional risks into collective action.

What does effective governance look like when we move from tipping points in general to the risks posed by a specific system? This session brings scientists and policymakers together in a series of focused dialogues, each centred on one tipping system. Drawing on current understanding of its dynamics, risks and uncertainties, each conversation will explore priorities for prevention, preparedness and response; barriers and opportunities for policy action; and how governance can adapt as knowledge and risks evolve. The dialogues will also consider questions of equity and justice, including how risks, responsibilities and opportunities for action are distributed across countries, communities and generations.

What will it take to turn the science of global tipping points into decisive action at the scale and speed required? This session examines the concrete choices, investments and policy shifts needed to accelerate resilient transformation. The discussion will focus on what leaders can do now, and how business, government and science can work together to move from urgency to action and deliver change.